Travel Data & Forecasting

Where Air Passengers Are Headed, 20 Years Out

The Air Passenger Forecast tracks air passenger flows across nearly 4,000 global country-to-country routes, pairing nearly two decades of history with a 20-year outlook.

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Global Air Passenger Flows, Route by Route

The Air Passenger Forecast (APF) provides long-term forecasts of air passenger flows across thousands of routes worldwide, alongside total passenger flows by country and region. It pairs history back to 2006 with a 20-year outlook, delivering a consistent, forward-looking view of global air travel. Understand not only how traffic has moved, but where it is likely to go. 

What you can do 

  • Track air passenger flows across nearly 4,000 routes, with history and a 20-year forecast 
  • Compare growth across markets and regions on a consistent global basis 
  • Test the outlook with baseline, upside, and downside scenarios 
  • Build the case for routes, capacity, and infrastructure with long-range demand 
Oxford Economics Air Passenger Forecasting tool displayed on a tablet, showing an interactive world choropleth map with blue gradient shading by country and gradient settings panel on the left.

See Where Air Travel Is Taking Off

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Plan for More Than One Flight Path 

Air travel is shaped by forces that rarely move in a straight line: economic cycles, liberalization, energy costs, and the sustainability agenda. Alongside a baseline forecast, the Air Passenger Forecast provides upside and downside scenarios and regular trend analysis, so you can understand the risks around the outlook, not just a single number.

Airplane lands on airport strip at sunset
Overhead view of a busy airport terminal with motion-blurred travelers walking beneath a departures directional sign, conveying the energy of a bustling travel hub.

Where Aviation Data Meets Economic Fundamentals 

The Air Passenger Forecast combines global aviation data with the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model, a globally recognized framework, so passenger projections move in step with the economic and demographic forces that drive air travel. As an independent, third-party research firm, Tourism Economics stays objective amid a changing air landscape. 

From Route Decisions to Long-Haul Strategy 

Plan Routes and Networks 
Evaluate where demand is growing to guide new routes, frequencies, and network strategy. 

Size Capacity and Infrastructure 
Anticipate long-term passenger growth to plan capacity, terminals, and airport infrastructure. 

Build Investment and Market Cases 
Bring independent, long-range demand forecasts to financing, feasibility, and air service development. 

What’s Inside the Service 

The Air Passenger Forecast brings together data, scenarios, and analysis, including: 

  • Air passenger flows: Long-term forecasts across nearly 4,000 routes, plus total flows by country and region
  • Scenarios: Baseline, upside, and downside outlooks for stress-testing plans 
  • Economic & demographic drivers: The growth, income, and population trends behind the forecast
  • Reports & trend analysis: A global forecast report and country-level analysis with each update

Plus, receive regular data and report updates, invitations to webinars, and direct economist support.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Air Passenger Forecast?

The Air Passenger Forecast (APF) is a subscription service providing long-term forecasts of air passenger flows across nearly 4,000 routes worldwide plus total flows by country and region. It pairs historical data with a 20-year outlook and includes baseline, upside, and downside scenarios. 

How far ahead does it forecast, and how often is it updated?

APF provides a 20-year outlook alongside history back to 2006, and the data is updated quarterly, with each update accompanied by trend analysis. 

What counts as a “route”?

Routes are defined as country and region pairs, which gives a consistent basis for comparing air travel across markets worldwide, rather than airport-to-airport detail. 

How is it different from the Global Travel Service?

The Global Travel Service covers travel demand across all modes of transport with detail on an origin-destination basis by country. The Air Passenger Forecast focuses specifically on air passenger flows by route. The two are designed to work together, so clients can move between total travel demand and the air component of it. 

Where does the data come from?

APF combines International Air Transport Association (IATA) global aviation data with the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model, so forecasts reflect the economic and demographic forces behind air travel rather than recent traffic alone. 

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ENAIRE has trusted Oxford Economics data and intelligence services for several years, primarily through their tailored subscription solutions. The quality and accuracy of their macroeconomic analyses are essential to supporting our air traffic forecasting processes. We greatly value the professionalism and responsiveness of their team.

ENAIRE

We were drawn to working with Oxford Economics for its solid reputation and the strength of its research, and we have been particularly impressed with their ability to present work to governments and the media – it is the reason we would look for future opportunities to work together.

Airbnb

TE has a remarkable ability to make economic trends digestible, even to those who insist they do not understand economics.

Berkeley Young

Young Strategies